How Shaun Abrahams’ dismissal could stall ANC Electives

As glorious as it has been seeing Shaun Abrahams forced out of his job as the NPA Director today, we’re afraid this will probably have some influence of the ANC Electives next weekend.

There is something creepily unhealthy about Shaun’s relationship with Jacob Zuma. In fact, the latter has already begun his appeal against the decision made in the North Gauteng High Court earlier on Friday.

The courts found that the ousting of previous NPA Director Mxolisi Nxasana was completely unlawful, with the cherry-on-top being the R17 million ‘golden handshake’ Zuma gave to Nxasana so he would go quietly.

However, it’s all blown up in the President’s face. He’s now going to resort to hardball to get what he wants, and it could very well have a detrimental effect to the process of choosing JZ’s replacement

Abrahams and Zuma: Two peas in a pod

Let’s just be straight, here. Of all the state captors being made to dance to the Guptas’ and Zuma’s tune, Shaun Abrahams was the first one on the dancefloor. He was also the last one to leave. He has sprung Zuma out of many tight situations, through sheer inaction.

Abrahams did nothing regarding the president’s misuse of government funds in both the capture of the state and Nkandla. The fact that not a single person has been charged for state capture despite a myriad of evidence is absolutely striking. Furthermore, it exposes Abrahams for the glorified teacher’s pet he really is.


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Staving off a favoured Ramaphosa

So this is why the ANC Electives could be in serious trouble. This instant appeal looks set to give Abrahams a stay of execution. He is expected to remain in his role until Zuma’s appeal is dismissed for its frivolity. It’s all part of JZ’s master plan.

The ruling stated that Jacob Zuma cannot be the one who chooses a new NPA director. Instead, that power has been bestowed upon Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa. Mr Ramaphosa is one of the two leading candidates to replace Jacob Zuma, and he’s pushed ahead as the clear favourite for the role.

Should the ANC Conference go ahead from the 16th December as planned, Zuma’s deputy will be expected to cruise to victory. This, however, is terrible news for the current President. If he wants to keep his lick-spittle in a job, that is.

A postponement of the conference would buy Zuma and Abrahams a lot of time. It would allow his nearest competitor Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma a chance to bridge the gap. She is seen as a carbon copy of Jacob Zuma by her detractors. Should she seize the power, it’s unlikely Cyril could carry on in his role as Deputy.

The role of finding a new NPA head honcho could end up in the hands of an NDZ-appointed Deputy. More susceptible to Zuma’s influence, there’d be less chance that whoever takes the role would go after JZ in the same way as Ramaphosa would. Cyril is winning support for finding his voice against state corruption recently, and it’s been noted by the Jacob Zuma camp.


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Chaos is a great thing for Zuma

Until the Abrahams decision has clarity, there exists another reason for the conference to be delayed. The backdrop of a power struggle and a vacant position in such an important role suits a power-crazed Zuma perfectly. He’s a leader who revels in chaos, and survives in the climate of turmoil.

A missing NPA director could very much be the straw to break the ANC’s back, though. This isn’t the only reason that Zuma would be happy to stir up utter madness. The more reasons this regime finds to undermine the conference, the more chance they have of being able declare a Ramaphosa win invalid.

Why the ANC Electives could be postponed

Presidential candidate Lindiwe Sisulu has gone on record saying that ANC branches are taking bribes in exchange for votes. This could derail the democratic process.

The Mangaung Conference in 2012 was allegedly the scene of manipulation, which put ‘yes men’ and cronies into positions that favoured Zuma. If any of this surfaces in Midrand next weekend, the whole event could collapse.

A house divided is a huge element of trouble for the ANC Electives. Even if a winner is declared, it’s unlikely either side will take it lying down.

Mpumalanga threw a giant spanner in the works last week. They nominated the word ‘Unity’ as its preferred candidate. There’s a likelihood of this result being invalidated. This would require another vote in the province that would hold up the ANC Electives.


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Kwa-Zulu Natal’s local elections of 2015 remain extremely contentious. There’s an argument to discount their vote at the Electives, as the result for the Premier nomination was declared ‘null and void’ earlier this year.
Will Jacob Zuma consider stepping down?

He’s been somewhat cryptic about what his plans are for 2018. On a couple of occasions, he’s spoke in a manner indicating that he will give the presidency to the winner of this conference, who will replace him instantly.

But we’re all getting a bit long in the tooth. We’re wise to these parlour games. You can bet your bottom dollar he’ll only make an early exit if he gets his way. That means overseeing ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma replacing him.

If Cyril maintains his lead and wins, you better believe Zuma will do everything in his power to fight off the trouble that comes with Ramaphosa’s shifting loyalties. However, the threat of losing guardian angel Shaun Abrahams means we may not even get to that point.


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